One of the simplest ways to take the pulse of an E-rate cycle is to look at Form 470 filings early in the year. By January 31, applicants have usually made at least a preliminary call on what they plan to buy. Here’s what the numbers show as of January 31 for the last five funding years:
Two clear signals stand out
1. Category One is off to a slower start in FY2026
From FY2022 through FY2025, Category One filings steadily increased by this point in the year. That pattern breaks in FY2026. As of January 31, Category One Form 470s are noticeably lower than last year.
That doesn’t necessarily mean fewer Category One projects overall. Multi-year agreements, waiting on budgets, or internal approvals before posting a Form 470, can all play a role in the pace of Category One Form 470s, but the slower pace is worth noting.
2. Record Pace of Category Two Filing
Category Two filings in FY2026 are higher than any prior year at this same point and now exceed Category One filings. That’s a shift from what we’ve seen historically.
One important factor: FY2026 marks the start of a new five-year Category Two budget cycle for many applicants. Earlier Category Two activity may reflect pent up demand and an effort to leverage refreshed budgets and plan equipment projects with greater certainty.
A practical takeaway
If you are still planning to post a Form 470, now is the time to act. As we saw in FY2025, applicants who move sooner generally received funding faster. Earlier bidding leads to earlier funding requests and earlier funding commitments.
We’ll continue tracking Form 470 and Form 471 trends as the cycle progresses.
